Borea Benchmark · Bring your own forecast
Public resultsOpt-in results of the demo, in order of completion; not a ranking.
Results whose submitters chose to show them, in order of completion. This list is not a ranking. «point» is the submitted path as it is; «external» is the same path with the error band of the operational RSGA index forecast applied to it (a band inherited from the RSGA, not the submitter's uncertainty); references are computed on the same objects and the same base.
An external path is never a reference of D-041 and changes no registered verdict (D-051 point 5); this result is not a benchmark number.
The absence of information observed after t0 in the submitted path is self-declared by the submitter and is not verified: the benchmark cannot verify it from the file (the GFZ indices of every storm are public and the storm list itself is post-t0 information).
T0 = storm start - 24 h is a favourable instant for any forecaster: the Kp >= 7 run begins at exactly t0 + 24 h by construction and the storm list says so; a path that places the storm day correctly gains from knowing the onset, not from forecasting it. The difference of errors below is not read as forecast skill.
Times are measured on one machine, never a promise.
| Name | Base | Mode | Storms (168 h) | 168 h, external | 168 h, point | 336 h median abs. error (m) | 168 h external − reference (m) | re-entry, external | Completed (UTC) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| coverage | median abs. error (m) | coverage | median abs. error (m) | external | point | persistence | RSGA scenario | coverage | median abs. error (h) | |||||
| No public result yet. | ||||||||||||||
Models and licences
Borea Benchmark is a free, non-commercial research service. It runs the density models below unmodified on the project's server and returns only aggregate error statistics; the model software is never distributed.
NRLMSIS 2.1. This software incorporates the MSIS® empirical atmospheric model software designed and provided by NRL. Use is governed by the Open Source Academic Research License Agreement contained in the file nrlmsis2.1_license.txt. Licence and source: https://map.nrl.navy.mil/map/pub/nrl/NRLMSIS/NRLMSIS2.1/. MSIS® is a registered trademark of the Government of the United States of America.
DTM2020. DTM2020 (operational) © CNES. Used unmodified under the MCM/DTM licence, for academic, non-commercial purposes. Reference: S. Bruinsma and C. Boniface (2021), The operational and research DTM-2020 thermosphere models, J. Space Weather Space Clim. 11, 47, doi:10.1051/swsc/2021032. Licence: https://github.com/swami-h2020-eu/mcm/blob/master/LICENSE.